Cross Sectional and Times Series Forecast of the U.S. Current Account Balance
Mehdi Hojjat

This paper uses cross sectional and times series data to forecast the U.S. current account balance and projects that the U.S. will have a surplus in that account in less than 10 years. The paper also investigates the effects of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements on the U.S. current account balances. In contrast to the common belief that trade agreements provide export opportunities for the U.S. companies, hence improves the U.S. trade balances that are part of the U.S. current account balance, this paper shows that trade agreements deteriorates both of these accounts.

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